Bitcoin cycle indicators.

What it means

Attention IQ asks one question: how much is the public paying attention to Bitcoin — or Ethereum, using the toggle above — right now, compared with the recent past? It blends independent crowd signals — Wikipedia pageviews on the coin's article (curiosity), spot trading volume (participation), and stablecoin capital velocity, the 7-day net change in total stablecoin supply (deployable money arriving on-chain, market-wide by nature) — with Google search interest (intent) joining the blend whenever it is reachable.

Each input is percentile-ranked against its own trailing 350-day window, then the ranks are averaged into a single 0–100 score. Anchoring to the 350-day trend means the score measures attention relative to its own recent norm — a reading of 90 says the crowd is louder than on roughly 90% of days in the past year, whatever the absolute numbers are.

Rough regimes: below 30 — Quiet (apathy, historically where accumulation happens), 30–60 — Warming, 60–85 — Loud, above 85 — Euphoric (peak crowd noise, historically clustered near local tops). It is a sentiment thermometer, not a signal engine: it describes how loud the crowd is, not what to do.

For context, the chart overlays price (cyan, right axis, log scale) — Bitcoin from January 2014, Ethereum from its August 2015 listing. Volume reaches back just as far, so each coin's score line begins roughly three months after its data starts; Wikipedia pageviews join from July 2015 and stablecoin data from around 2018 — the blend at each date uses whichever inputs exist on that date.

One honest caveat: Google offers no official Trends API, so search interest is a bonus input — it strengthens the blend when Google's endpoint is reachable and is simply absent when it isn't. The active inputs are always listed under the chart.

What it means

The Mayer Multiple is simply today's Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. It tells you how stretched the price is from its long-term baseline.

Historically: a reading below 1.0 has often marked accumulation zones (price below its 200-day average — historically a value area), while readings above 2.4 have frequently coincided with overheated, late-cycle conditions where caution paid off.

Between those extremes is the normal range. It's one of the cleanest "cheap vs. expensive" reads in all of Bitcoin analysis precisely because it's so simple.

What it means

The Bull Market Support Band combines the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average into a single "band." It acts as a dynamic line of support during bull markets.

When Bitcoin is trading above the band, the longer-term trend is generally considered healthy — historically these have been times to hold or accumulate. When price falls below and stays below the band, it has often signalled the end of bullish momentum and a shift toward a corrective or bear phase.

It's widely watched precisely because it's kept holders on the right side of the major trend across multiple cycles.

What it means

The 200-week moving average is one of Bitcoin's most reliable long-term support levels. Across its entire history, the price has only briefly dipped to or below this line during the deepest bear-market bottoms — in 2015, 2018-19, and 2022.

The original "heatmap" version colours each price point by how much the 200-week MA increased that month: when monthly growth slows toward zero, it has historically been a strong accumulation signal. Here we plot price against the 200-week MA directly — the closer price sits to the line, the closer to historic value territory.

It's a patient, long-horizon bottom-finder, not a short-term timing tool.

What it means

The Rainbow Chart fits a logarithmic regression curve through Bitcoin's entire price history, then layers coloured bands above and below it. Each band represents a market mood — from "Fire Sale / Accumulate" at the bottom through to "Maximum Bubble Territory" at the top.

It's best read as a long-term sentiment guide: when price sits in the cool blue/green lower bands, history suggests value; when it climbs into the hot orange/red upper bands, it suggests euphoria and elevated risk.

Important: the Rainbow Chart is a fun, approximate model based on curve-fitting past data — not a precise predictive tool. Treat it as a rough mood ring for the market, not a signal to act on alone.

What it means

RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures the speed and size of recent price moves on a scale of 0 to 100. We calculate it on a weekly timeframe to filter out short-term noise and focus on the bigger trend.

Readings above 70 suggest Bitcoin is overbought — momentum is hot and a cooldown or pullback becomes more likely. Readings below 30 suggest oversold conditions, where selling may be exhausted and bounces have historically followed.

Unlike the cycle tools here, RSI is a shorter-term momentum read — most useful for gauging whether the current move is overstretched in either direction.

What it means

Bitcoin Profitable Days looks back across every single day in Bitcoin's history and asks: if you had bought on that day and held until now, would you be in profit? The indicator is the percentage of days where the answer is yes.

Because Bitcoin has trended up over the long run, this number is usually very high (often 95%+). That's why the rare moments when it dips — meaning even recent buyers are underwater — have historically lined up with deep capitulation lows and strong long-term buying opportunities.

A consistently maxed-out reading reflects a market in profit; meaningful dips are the signal worth watching.

How to read it

A bull market is a sustained advance from a cycle low to a cycle high; a bear market is the drawdown from that high to the next major low. Crypto has historically moved in repeating multi-year cycles, broadly anchored to Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving schedule — with Ethereum and Solana tending to amplify the same swings.

The y-axis is logarithmic, so each gridline is a 10× move — the only way to show early prices (cents to single dollars) and recent ones (hundreds to tens of thousands) on one chart. Percentages are the move from the cycle's low to its peak (bull) or from its peak to its trough (bear).

Cycle dates are approximate and chosen to capture each major move; they're a common-sense framing, not an official definition, and alts often top a little before or after Bitcoin. This is educational, not financial advice — past cycles don't guarantee future ones.

How the score works

Each bull market is rebased to 100 at its first day, so a line reaching 1,000 means a 10× gain regardless of the actual price. Lining them up by days since the start lets you compare a young cycle against where older ones were at the same age.

The correlation score (Pearson r, from −1 to 1) measures how similarly the current bull's trajectory has moved versus each past bull over their overlapping period, using log returns. A score near 1.0 means the shapes are tracking almost identically; the top-right card names the closest match.

Correlation describes shape, not destiny — a high score doesn't guarantee the same outcome. Educational only, not financial advice.

How the score works

Each bear market is rebased to 100 at its peak, so a line falling to 20 means an 80% drawdown. Aligning them by days since the top lets you compare the current decline against where past bears were at the same age.

The correlation score (Pearson r) measures how similarly the current bear's path has moved versus each past bear over their overlapping period, on log returns. Because the current bear is still young, the comparison only spans its length so far — the score will keep updating as it plays out.

Correlation describes shape, not destiny. Educational only, not financial advice.